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A Bayesian Examination of Anchoring Bias and Cheap Talks in Constructed Markets AgEcon
Aadland, David; Caplan, Arthur J..
We present a theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between anchoring bias, hypothetical bias, and cheap talk in constructed markets. In our theory, interviewers provide agents with signals such as cheap talk and bid values while eliciting the value for nonmarket goods. In response to these signals, agents revise their prior distributions over the value of the good. Previous empirical studies have failed to account for the interaction between cheap talk and anchoring during this updating process, leading researchers to incorrectly assess the effects of cheap talk in reducing hypothetical bias. In particular, we predict that cheap talk will appear to be more effective for relatively large bids. We test our theory in an experimental...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19568
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A Bayesian Implementation of the Standard Optimal Hedging Model: Parameter Estimation Risk and Subjective Views AgEcon
Shi, Wei; Irwin, Scott H..
We develop a Bayesian implementation of the standard optimal hedging model to analyze the impact of hedgers' subjective views on their hedging behavior. The results show the subjective views have a substantial impact on hedgers' optimal positions, explaining the large cross-sectional and time series variation of hedging positions in practice.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Marketing.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19155
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A Bayesian Total Factor Productivity Analysis of Tropical Agricultural Systems in Central-Western Africa And South-East Asia AgEcon
Tonini, Axel; Matus, Silvia Saravia; Gomez y Paloma, Sergio.
This paper computes and analyses total factor productivity (TFP) growth rates for tropical agricultural systems in Central-Western Africa and South-East Asia. Two regions that despite sharing common agro-ecological conditions, have pursued different adoption rates of green revolution technology and have reported dissimilar yields per hectare. A panel data set is constructed for the period 1987-2007 from the FAOSTAT database. A Bayesian stochastic frontier model with country specific temporal variation in technical efficiency is estimated. Technical efficiency estimates reveal that there is substantial room for improvement in both continental sub-sets and that TFP estimates show on average larger rates of growth for South-East Asian countries as compared to...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bayesian Inference; Stochastic Production Frontier; Time Varying Technical Inefficiency; Total Factor Productivity Growth; Tropical Agricultural Systems; Farm Management; Productivity Analysis; C15; D24; O47.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/116088
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A benefit cost analysis on management strategies for Queensland Fruit Fly: methods and observations AgEcon
Harvey, Sallyann; Fisher, Bill; Larson, Kristoffer; Malcolm, Bill.
The Queensland Fruit Fly (QFF) — Bactrocera tryoni — poses a significant threat to horticultural production in Victoria causing losses of fruit and jeopardising access to interstate and international markets. The Victorian Government implements and largely funds an area freedom program to manage QFF. Concern about the record number of outbreaks in 2007-08 and the escalating costs of maintaining the current management regime, led the Victorian Department of Primary Industries to review the program to identify improved strategies for managing QFF. As part of this work, a benefit cost analysis (BCA) of alternative strategies has been conducted. While the BCA method is well established, in general few studies are publicly available for area freedom programs....
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: International Relations/Trade.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/59740
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A Better Approach to Resolving Variable Selection Uncertainty in Meta Analysis for Benefits Transfer AgEcon
Randall, Alan; Chen, Ding-Rong.
Because original high-quality non-market valuation studies can be expensive, perhaps prohibitively so, benefits transfer (BT) approaches are often used for valuing, e.g., the outputs of multifunctional agriculture. Here we focus on the use of BT functions, a preferred method, and address an under-appreciated problem – variable selection uncertainty – and demonstrate a conceptually superior method of resolving it. We show that the standard method of value-function BT, using the full estimated model, may generate BT values that are too sensitive to insignificant variables, whereas models reduced by backward elimination of insignificant variables pay no attention to insignificant variables that may in fact have some influence on values. Rather than searching...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2011 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/114788
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A Bibliography of Australian Farm Management Research and Publication AgEcon
Cooper, Ian M..
One of the outcomes of the merger of the Farm Management Society of Central South Australia and AARES was a project to record the history of the Australian Farm Management Society. As part of this project it was decided to develop a bibliography of Australian Farm Management Research and Publication. It has been produced as a web site to facilitate further development. One of the problems is what to include or exclude from the bibliography. This hinges on one's definition of "Farm Management". The approach taken will be explored and progress to date reported.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bibliography; Farm Management; Online; Farm Management.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/24357
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A BILATERAL COMPARISON OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE CONSUMPTION: U.S AND CANADA AgEcon
Richards, Timothy J.; Patterson, Paul M..
A structural latent variable model tests the role quality and information play in explaining observed differences in Canadian and U.S. produce consumption (5.0 vs. 3.5 servings/day). Dietary health information is significant in expanding demands. Quality promotes fruit consumption in Canada, consistent with the Alchian-Allen prediction.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21891
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A Binary Logit Analysis of Factors Impacting Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton AgEcon
Banerjee, Swagata (Ban); Martin, Steven W..
Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) data for 2003 were used to estimate two binary logit models for two definitions of genetically modified (GM) cottonseed adoption. Results indicate conservation tillage did not positively affect adoption of GM cotton with either of these definitions, while adoption of GM cotton in the previous year did. Refuge cotton also did not affect these adoption decisions for the study year.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS); Binary logit model; Conservation tillage; Cotton; Genetically modified seed; Herbicide-resistant cotton; Jackknife procedure; Refuge cotton; Stacked-gene cotton; Technology adoption; Crop Production/Industries.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37140
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A Binary-Ordered Probit Model of Cigarette Demand AgEcon
Kasteridis, Panagiotis P.; Munkin, Murat K.; Yen, Steven T..
This study analyzes the demand for cigarettes fitting observed zero outcomes with a trivariate model consisting of an equation for the starting smoking decision, an equation for the quitting decision, and an equation that models the level of cigarettes consumed. Five competing specifications are considered to explain level, with the ordered probit, which accommodates pile-ups of counts in the dependent variable, providing the best fit. Marginal effects of explanatory variables are calculated providing strong evidence of race and gender differences in consumption patterns. The estimated marginal effects are robust to alternative categorizations of the level of cigarettes.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9862
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A Binomial Tree Approach to Valuing Fixed Rotation Forests and Flexible Rotation Forests Under a Mean Reverting Timber Price Process AgEcon
Tee, James; Scarpa, Riccardo; Marsh, Dan; Guthrie, Graeme.
NPV and LEV are established and common approaches to valuing single rotation and infinite rotation forests respectively, when the rotation age is fixed in advanced. More recently, Real Options approaches have been employed to value single and infinite rotation forests with a flexible harvest age. Under a stochastic timber price process, it has been shown that the valuation of a flexible rotation forest is equal or higher than that of a fixed rotation forest, because a flexible harvest regime delays the harvest if the timber price is not favourable, whereas a fixed harvest regime would proceed to harvest regardless of the price. Often, valuation of fixed and flexible rotation ages are compared using 2 different methods – NPV (or LEV) and Real Options. The...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: NPV; LEV; Real Options; Optimal Harvest Decision; Agribusiness; Crop Production/Industries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2010 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/96836
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A BIO-BASED FUTURE: BLUE SKY OR OPPORTUNITY AgEcon
Jensen, Lynn.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/33397
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A Bioeconomic Analysis of Protected Area use in Fisheries Management AgEcon
Greenville, Jared W.; MacAulay, T. Gordon.
The use of protected areas as a fishery management tool has been suggested as a hedge against management failures and variation in harvests. A stochastic bioeconomic model of a two-species fishery will be used to test the performance of protected areas as a management tool in a fishery with heterogenous environments. Protected areas are analysed under density-dependent and sink-source dispersal relationships between environments within the fishery. Differing levels of management control over fishery resource extraction are analysed. The model is applied to Manning Bioregion in NSW. The focus of the study is placed on the biological and institutional characteristics that yield benefits to the fishery.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2006 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21469
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A Bioeconomic Analysis of the Duration of Conservation Contracts AgEcon
Crowe, Bronwyn; White, Benedict.
Conservation and restoration of native vegetation is often a gradual process which may require many years to transform an ecosystem from one vegetative state to a target ecosystem. This process is stochastic, with some changes potentially irreversible. In contrast, contracts with landholders to undertake conservation measures on their property are typically for less than ten years and often make no contingencies for re-contracting at the end of the contract period. The risk to land holders and conservation agencies of contracts not being renewed and the consequent potential loss of previous investment means including covenants in conservation contracts may be attractive to both parties. A model is developed to empirically examine the optimal dynamic...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: POMDP; Biodiversity; Contracts; Monitoring; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2007 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/9457
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A bio-economic evaluation of the American Foulbrood (AFB) control program in Western Australia AgEcon
Ghose, Ananda; Hawkins, Chris.
American foulbrood (AFB) is considered the most significant brood disease of bees in Western Australia. The Department of Agriculture of Western Australia (DAWA) provides assistance to apiarists by way of quarantine and surveillance measures under the AFB control program. A bio-economic evaluation was considered necessary by the department for setting future policy direction. As a way forward, a number of risk analysis scenarios were simulated to estimate the future prevalence rate of AFB in the absence of the present program. This epidemiological investigation was complemented by an economic evaluation which identifies the extent of benefit that flows through to direct beneficiaries. The paper provides a comprehensive bio-economic analysis and suggests...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Agricultural and Food Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58449
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A bioeconomic model for determining the optimal response to a new weed incursion in Australian cropping systems AgEcon
Jayasuriya, Rohan T.; Jones, Randall E..
Invasions by non-indigenous plant species pose serious economic threats to Australian agricultural industries. When an invasion is discovered a decision has to be made as to whether to attempt to eradicate it, contain it or do nothing. These decisions should be based on long term benefits and costs. This paper describes a bioeconomic simulation framework with a mathematical model representing weed spread linked to a dynamic programming model to provide a means of determining the economically optimal weed management strategies over time. The modelling framework is used to evaluate case study invasive weed control problems in the Australian grains industry.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Weeds; Incursion; Bioeconomic model; Crop Production/Industries; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods.
Ano: 2008 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/6015
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A bioeconomic model of a marine park AgEcon
Greenville, Jared W.; MacAulay, T. Gordon.
A spatial bioeconomic model of a fishery will be used to investigate the effect of creating a marine park in a heterogeneous environment. Focus will be placed on the relevant biological and economic conditions needed to provide a benefit to both fishers and conservationists alike. The fishing environment will be one of limited entry to better simulate the conditions which exist in many developed nations. Fishers will be assumed to operate across patched in which the fish stocks are linked via either sink-source or density dependant spatial relationships.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Bioeconomic; Marine protected area; Fisheries; Environmental Economics and Policy; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58451
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A Bio-economic Model of a Shrimp Hatchery in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam AgEcon
Sinh, L.X.; MacAulay, T. Gordon; Brennan, Donna C..
Shrimp culture areas and production of the Mekong Delta cover about 60 percent of the total shrimp areas and production of Vietnam. Especially, the Delta contributes about 80 percent of the total shrimp production for export. Rapid development of the shrimp industry is raising a number of serious problems that need to be solved. Shrimp seed supply (post larvae production) plays an essential role in the shrimp industry and it is one of the most important constraints to the development of the shrimp industry in the Delta. The focus of this study is aimed at obtaining an improvement in both the profit per day and post larvae production of the shrimp hatchery in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was applied to develop a...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Shrimp hatchery; Larval stage; System simulation modelling; Agricultural and Food Policy; Production Economics.
Ano: 2003 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/58261
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A BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF SPATIAL POLICY OPTIONS AgEcon
Smith, Martin D.; Wilen, James E..
This paper outlines an empirical bioeconomic model that is spatially explicit. It combines a metapopulation model of sea urchin biology with a discrete choice econometric analysis of harvester behavior. Discrete choice results are used to simulate short-term spatial closures in the fishery, and implications for long-term spatial management are discussed.
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Environmental Economics and Policy.
Ano: 2000 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/21749
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A Bioeconomic Model of the Soybean Aphid Treatment Decision in Soybeans AgEcon
Olson, Kent D.; Badibanga, Thaddee Mutumba.
Since its first detection in the North Central region in July 2000, the soybean aphid (Aphis glycines Matsamura) has caused considerable loss in soybean (Glycine max L.) yield, bean quality, and producer income. Discovered first in Wisconsin and then in adjoining states, it is currently distributed in 21 US states and parts of Canada. In 2003, over 42 million acres of soybean in the North Central US were infested and over 7 million acres were treated with insecticides to control soybean aphid (Landis et al. 2003). Populations exceeding 24,000 aphids per plant and 40% losses in seed yield have been reported (DiFonzo & Hines 2002). Even prior to the outbreak of 2003, the Soybean Strategic Pest Management Plan identified soybean aphid as one of the key...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Soybean aphid; Bioeconomic model; Farm Management.
Ano: 2005 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19237
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A BIO-ECONOMIC MODEL OF WETLAND PROTECTION ON PRIVATE LANDS AgEcon
Whitten, Stuart M.; Bennett, Jeffrey W..
Wetland ecosystems on privately owned farms – such as those on the Murrumbidgee River Floodplain in the state of New South Wales, Australia – provide a mix of potentially valuable outputs to their owners and the wider community. The mix of values generated is dependent on the biophysical status of the wetlands, which in-turn, is dependent on the land management in and around these multiple-output ecosystems. Despite the range of private and public values generated, management decisions are based primarily on the private values that landowners receive. These private land management decisions also affect social values. Hence, there is potentially a demand for public policy to influence decisions based on the social values wetlands generate. This paper...
Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation Palavras-chave: Land Economics/Use.
Ano: 2004 URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20122
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